North Carolina Governor Josh Stein has officially approved a legislative measure that recognizes the exclusive jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over prediction markets. This concerns platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, which now receive a clear legal status at the state level.
A key element of the new law is the introduction of a 6% tax on net trading commissions earned from transactions conducted by North Carolina residents. This means that prediction market operators will be required to contribute a portion of their income to the state budget, but they will not need to obtain a separate local license. Federal oversight by the CFTC is deemed sufficient to regulate their activities.
This step is significant for the entire industry. Previously, many states attempted to impose their own requirements on prediction trading platforms, creating legal uncertainty and market fragmentation. North Carolina, in contrast, chooses a path of unification by recognizing the primacy of the federal regulator.
For Kalshi and Polymarket, this decision is a strong positive signal. It reduces regulatory risks and could set a precedent for other states currently considering similar legislation. However, the 6% tax represents an additional burden on businesses, which could impact operational margins, especially amid high competition for liquidity.
My analysis: North Carolina demonstrates a pragmatic approach that could serve as a model for others. Instead of fighting a new asset class or creating parallel regulatory barriers, the state opts for tax integration. This is a reasonable compromise between consumer protection and fostering innovation. If other states follow this example, prediction markets in the U.S. will gain long-awaited clarity, inevitably attracting institutional capital.