The Bitcoin market is experiencing an interesting yet concerning moment. My analysis of data from leading on-chain platforms shows that the average purchase price of Bitcoin for Strategy is significantly higher than that of the average holder on Binance. This difference in cost basis is what caused the major sell-off this week.
Largest Sale in Strategy's History
Strategy executed the largest BTC sale in its history, recording a loss of approximately 20%. According to my calculations, the company sold 3,588 BTC for roughly $216 million. With an average purchase price of $75,476 and a sale around the $60,000 level, the transaction resulted in a significant loss. This sale was a forced measure to finance dividends on Digital Credit securities, not a market conviction.
Despite this, Strategy remains a key player in the industry, continuing to hold 843,775 bitcoins. This volume exceeds Binance's own reserves, which stand at 656,561 BTC. This comparison highlights the scale of the company's holdings relative to the world's largest trading platform.
Spot Demand for Bitcoin Weakens
Completing the picture is an analysis of the 90-day Spot Taker CVD indicator, which reflects who controls the market — real buyers or sellers. My observations show that the strong spot buying pressure that supported Bitcoin has begun to weaken, and the indicator has returned to a neutral zone. This does not mean buyers have completely left the market, but there is currently insufficient aggressive demand to noticeably push the price higher.
I see two scenarios. If the indicator turns green again, it will signal the return of real demand, and growth could intensify. If it turns red, selling pressure will increase, and Bitcoin may enter a new wave of decline. The connection between the two studies is that they describe the same market vulnerability from different angles: Strategy's loss-making sale shows that even the largest corporate holder is forced to exit around $60,000, while weakening demand means there is almost no one to absorb such supply right now.
My expert opinion: The current situation is a classic example of market fragility, where major players are forced to realize losses due to external obligations rather than internal convictions. If real buyers do not return, the market will struggle to hold current levels under the pressure of such sales. I expect increased volatility in the coming days.