Elon Musk is once again in the spotlight of investors, making a bold statement on his social network X. He believes that if SpaceX realizes its long-term plans, it will eventually be worth more than the entire Earth's economy. This is not just a loud phrase — it is a strategic vision that deserves detailed analysis.
What lies behind Musk's bold forecast?
Musk is not talking about the current market valuation of SpaceX, but about the future when humanity transitions to a space economy. His logic traces back to a post in January 2026, where he argued that space industries would "surpass the entire Earth in value." The key driver of such growth, in his opinion, will be the development of solar energy.
The numbers are indeed impressive: humanity could receive roughly 100,000 times more solar energy than it currently does, using only a tiny fraction of the Sun's total energy flow across the entire solar system — less than one millionth. For comparison, the global economy generates approximately $100 trillion in annual GDP, and the IMF forecast for 2026 is $109-110 trillion. Musk is confident that through orbital manufacturing, asteroid mining, and Mars colonization, these limitations can be exceeded.
"SpaceX will become the world's first company with a $10 trillion market cap. Remember this tweet," wrote analyst Nick Cruz Patane.
SPCX has fallen 32% from its all-time high: what's next?
SpaceX shares are currently trading around $153, with the company's market capitalization close to $2 trillion. However, recently the quotes have dropped approximately 32% from the June high of $225. This is a significant correction, but it does not change the fundamental picture.
Musk's philosophy and practical steps have a powerful impact on the sentiment of stock market players. SpaceX's fundamental mission is to turn humanity into a multiplanetary species. That is why the development of flagship projects like Starship is critically important for deploying permanent bases beyond our home planet.
Such ambition has fueled speculation about possible closer interaction with Tesla. In a recent review, JPMorgan analysts called a potential merger of SpaceX and Tesla "logical from a strategic standpoint." They note the obvious synergy benefits between artificial intelligence, robotics, energy, and transportation.
True, serious obstacles await Musk's team on this path. JPMorgan points to intense regulatory pressure, especially in the Chinese market. The deal would require approval from regulatory bodies in many countries before a unified management system can be built and innovation adoption accelerated.
Technical signals in the short term remain ambiguous, but they are being closely monitored. Recently, shares tested important support in the $145-150 range after a noticeable drop immediately following the stock exchange listing. If the support level holds, traders expect a recovery in quotes.
Major players continue to trust the founder's plans, ignoring daily price fluctuations. SpaceX conducted the largest IPO in history. Nevertheless, experts still have many questions regarding the timelines for program implementation, their final cost, and the technological challenges of exploring uncharted worlds.
My professional opinion: Musk's forecast is not an investment recommendation, but a long-term benchmark. While SpaceX trades at a discount to its ambitions, interest in the shares remains high, but realizing the plans will require decades and overcoming colossal technical and regulatory barriers.