Elon Musk is once again stirring up investors' minds with his bold statement. The SpaceX founder claims that his company could be worth more than the entire Earth's economy if it realizes its long-term plans. Let's break down what lies behind this forecast and what SpaceX's real market position is.
Musk is not talking about SpaceX's current valuation, which, according to the latest data, stands at around $2 trillion with a stock price near $153. He is looking much further ahead—into a future where the space economy becomes dominant. His logic is simple: humanity uses only a tiny fraction of the solar energy available in the solar system. Estimates suggest we could receive 100,000 times more than we do now by harnessing just one millionth of the total flow.
For context: the global economy generates about $100 trillion in annual GDP, with the IMF forecast for 2026 at $109–110 trillion. Musk is confident that through orbital manufacturing, asteroid mining, and Mars colonization, these limitations can be overcome. Analysts have already picked up on this idea: Nick Cruz Patane wrote on X that SpaceX will become the first company with a $10 trillion market cap.
Technical signals and challenges on the path to $10 trillion
For now, SpaceX shares have corrected 32% from the June high of $225, testing key support in the $145–150 range. If this level holds, traders expect a recovery in quotes. Major players, it seems, believe in the founder's long-term vision, ignoring short-term fluctuations.
However, serious obstacles stand in the way of ambitious goals. JPMorgan analysts note strict regulatory pressure, especially in the Chinese market, which could complicate a potential merger of SpaceX with Tesla. Such a combination, according to experts, would be "logical from a strategic standpoint," but would require approval from numerous regulatory bodies.
My expert opinion: Musk's statement is not just a PR stunt, but a clear signal of where the market is heading. However, a $10 trillion market cap is not a matter of the next few years. SpaceX will have to overcome colossal technological and regulatory challenges before we see even a fraction of this potential. For now, investors should focus on the company's real achievements, rather than loud forecasts.