North Carolina Governor Josh Stein has officially signed into law a legislative act recognizing the jurisdiction of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket. This move marks a significant precedent in the regulation of the emerging decentralized prediction sector at the state level.
Under the new law, operators of platforms for betting on event outcomes are required to pay a 6% tax on net trading commissions derived from transactions conducted by North Carolina residents. At the same time, the state does not impose a requirement for obtaining a separate local license — recognition of federal CFTC oversight relieves companies of additional bureaucratic burdens.
This decision holds strategic importance for the entire industry. Previously, prediction markets faced legal uncertainty at the individual state level, creating risks for operators and users. North Carolina is choosing a path of harmonization with federal regulators, which could serve as a model for other regions.
Tax Implications and Market Prospects
The introduction of a 6% tax on commissions is a moderate fiscal measure that should not significantly impact trader activity. However, for platforms like Polymarket, which operate on blockchain and often bypass traditional financial channels, this may require adaptation of reporting systems.
I view this law as a positive signal for the legitimization of prediction markets. Clear recognition of CFTC oversight reduces regulatory risks, while the tax burden remains competitive compared to other forms of gambling and financial transactions. In the coming months, similar initiatives are expected to emerge in other states seeking to attract innovative fintech companies.
My expert conclusion: North Carolina's decision is a well-considered compromise between control and growth stimulation. For investors and market participants, this means increased transparency and reduced legal risks, which in the long term will strengthen trust in the decentralized prediction sector.