The Russian crypto circuit is not just another regulatory experiment, but a strategic tool with a clear economic logic. It is being built for cross-border settlements, investments, and bringing shadow turnover into the legal field. However, the key paradox is that increasing sanctions pressure gradually narrows the possibilities for external operations, calling into question the very feasibility of the entire structure. Let's figure out who is creating it and why, and whether it has a future.

Who is the crypto circuit being created for?

The expert community agrees that the circuit is aimed at a wide range of participants. For foreign trade settlements, it is a natural expansion of the experimental legal regime (ELR) to a larger number of participants, granting them additional powers. For investment divisions, it is an expansion of the digital product line, including opportunities for digital financial assets (DFAs), attracting international investors, and creating secondary turnover in public networks. For financial and credit organizations, it is an opportunity to expand lending in the broadest sense: long-term, short-term, as well as introducing instruments like factoring and debt securitization. For the state, it is bringing the de facto existing industry into a regulated, taxable circuit and eliminating problems related to AML/CFT and FATF requirements.

It is important to understand: for legal entities and individuals in each of these categories, suitable tools and services that are currently in short supply will be found. The share of cross-border transfers and settlements involving crypto is growing by 20-30% annually according to various estimates. The only problem that regulation in Russia solves is providing access to crypto market instruments for large banks and the regulator.

"Large players are taking over the market, and this is only possible under conditions of existing legislation — any kind, the main thing is that legal mechanisms are in place," notes an expert.

Sanctions and the resilience of the circuit

Circumventing sanctions is not the main goal of the circuit — it is more of a side effect. There will be pressure on it — and it is already being applied within the framework of the 20th EU sanctions package — but market participants are aware of this and are already taking measures to reduce risks. The system will operate smoothly, as is the case with fiat operations. Three key measures are identified to reduce sanctions risk:

  • Interaction with CIS-licensed solutions and other intermediate links in the payment chain — this will help blur the trail and reduce the burden.
  • Managing the issuance of stablecoins based on banks — solves the problem of marking smart contracts and wallets, since it is technically impossible to track and block the entire issuance system at once: it is easily and cheaply duplicated, launched from scratch, and scaled in Russia.
  • Using alternative solutions, including DFAs, investment products, and tokenization — will become a backup option for the most difficult scenarios.

Does a closed circuit make sense?

The value of cryptocurrency lies in its cross-border nature. If the circuit is entirely closed within the Russian Federation, the economic sense will be greatly diminished; however, such a situation is impossible precisely because of the decentralized nature of digital currencies. One can try to restrict entry and exit into fiat outside Russia, but this will not completely close the circuit either — not all countries support the policy of isolating the Russian Federation, and the DeFi sector is so developed that it is technically impossible to erect all barriers without killing the corresponding tools.

The economic rationale of the Russian circuit is to give the market the opportunity to bypass fiat restrictions using cryptocurrency and profit from it. This is not about isolation, but about creating an alternative channel for international settlements.

Who wins and who loses?

Here, expert opinions diverge. According to one view, only the black market will lose — it will not disappear entirely, but the financial flow through completely unregulated organizations will gradually decline. Everyone else, in the long term, will only benefit.

Another assessment is harsher. Russian banks are already deploying their own infrastructure and know how to work with crypto instruments, so they come out ahead. Small and medium capital, as well as startups, lose out, and currently there are three paths for them: migration to other countries, selling to banks in the near future, or creating products that banks currently lack time for but that are needed by the market and specific client banks.

Who are crypto depositories being built for?

Crypto depositories and crypto wallets are created for clients — this is a legal requirement. The use of cryptocurrencies has long moved beyond a narrow circle of anonymous users: buying a car or real estate with crypto, transferring funds abroad require proof of the legal origin of funds and readiness for questions about taxes. This is precisely the function of depositories and regulated wallets — helping users within the legal circuit. Excesses on the part of market participants and the state are inevitable, not so much due to malicious intent as due to incompetence: new products are complex at the technical and user levels, and years of upskilling for all participants will be required.

Current independent alternatives are perceived as a mystical and temporary concept. Regulation will change the market and give the "green light" only to institutional players with large client bases.

"We are talking about a new segment of users of crypto depositories and crypto wallets — these are existing traditional players, bank clients, individuals and legal entities who will receive the same service at their preferred bank," summarizes the expert.

Cryptalist's opinion: The Russian crypto circuit is an inevitable evolution of a market trying to adapt to sanctions pressure while simultaneously legalizing existing flows. The key challenge is not so much technical implementation as finding a balance between state control and maintaining attractiveness for international operations. If the circuit is too rigid, it will lose its meaning; if too soft, it will not fulfill the regulator's tasks. In the next 2-3 years, we will see whether Russia can create a working model that does not slide into isolation.