The Russian currency is entering a traditionally difficult period. After a short-term rebound in July, when the ruble recovered 3-5% of its June losses, the market is preparing for a new phase of pressure. The technical correction we observed was merely a temporary respite before the resumption of the weakening trend.

Fundamental factors pressure the ruble

The key driver is the imbalance between currency inflow and outflow. Imports are actively recovering, creating sustained demand for the dollar, euro, and yuan. At the same time, export revenues are stagnating, reducing the supply of currency on the domestic market. Additional pressure comes from currency purchases under the budget rule. The combination of these factors creates a persistent excess of demand over supply.

Forecast targets for the end of summer

Based on current dynamics, we expect the following levels by the end of summer:

  • US Dollar (USD/RUB) — a return to June highs with the potential to update to 80 rubles and above.
  • Euro (EUR/RUB) — consolidation around the 90 ruble mark.
  • Chinese Yuan (CNY/RUB) — approaching the 12 ruble level.

Seasonal factor works against the ruble

August is historically one of the weakest months for the ruble. This is due to seasonal features of the trade balance: imports traditionally grow during this period, while export flows slow down. As a result, demand for currency increases, and its supply decreases, creating favorable conditions for the growth of foreign exchange rates.

Strategy for investors

Given the expected weakening of the ruble, hedging ruble savings appears rational. The most obvious instruments are direct purchase of currency or futures on it, as well as currency bonds, which benefit both from exchange rate growth and coupon income.

It is important to note that the upcoming launch of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, will have no impact on the national currency's exchange rate. This is merely a new form of settlement, not a monetary policy tool.

Cryptalist Comment: The scenario of ruble weakening looks logical and well-founded by fundamental factors. However, investors should remember that during periods of high volatility, the market often presents surprises, and any geopolitical or monetary changes can adjust even the most balanced forecasts. I recommend diversifying currency risks without relying solely on one instrument.