After a short-term technical correction in July, the ruble will face a new wave of pressure by the end of summer. The focus is on the dollar returning to June highs and beyond, as well as the weakening of the national currency due to seasonal factors and an imbalance of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market.

The July correction of the ruble, amounting to 3–5%, was only a temporary respite. In my analysis, based on current market signals, this was a technical correction within an upward trend for the dollar, euro, and yuan. By the end of August, we may see a return of exchange rates to the following levels:

  • Dollar (USD/RUB) — a return to levels of 80 and above, up to updating June highs.
  • Euro (EUR/RUB) — consolidation near 90.
  • Yuan (CNY/RUB) — approaching 12.

The key driver of the ruble's weakening is a structural imbalance between currency inflows and outflows. Export revenues are stagnating, while imports continue to grow, increasing demand for foreign currency. Additional pressure comes from currency purchases under the budget rule — this factor systematically strengthens the movement of the exchange rate toward a weaker ruble.

Seasonality deserves special attention. August is historically one of the weakest months for the ruble. During this period, imports traditionally peak, while export revenues, on the contrary, decline. The supply of currency on the market narrows, while demand remains high — a classic recipe for growth in the dollar, euro, and yuan exchange rates.

As for the upcoming launch of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, this event will have no impact on the national currency's exchange rate. The digital ruble is merely a new form of circulation, not a tool of monetary policy or currency interventions.

What should investors do?

Against the backdrop of the expected weakening of the ruble, I consider two main options for preserving capital:

  • Buying currency or futures on it — a classic strategy for hedging ruble risks.
  • Currency bonds — as exchange rates rise, they not only appreciate but also provide coupon income in foreign currency.

My professional opinion: The current situation in the foreign exchange market forms a clear signal for reassessing ruble positions. Ignoring seasonal factors and structural imbalances could lead to significant losses in the purchasing power of savings by the beginning of autumn.