The Russian ruble is entering a difficult period. Despite the short-term technical correction observed in July, fundamental factors point to a resumption of the downward trend by the end of summer. After an impressive 10% drop at the start of the season, the July pullback of 3-5% was only a temporary respite, not a reversal of the trend.
My analysis of the current situation confirms that we are on the verge of another wave of strengthening for the dollar, euro, and yuan. The targets for the end of summer look as follows: the dollar could return to its June highs and even break through the 80 ruble mark, the euro could consolidate near 90 rubles, and the yuan could approach 12 rubles.
Why the ruble is vulnerable: structural imbalances
The key driver of the ruble's weakening is the imbalance between the inflow and outflow of currency. Export revenues are stagnating, while imports are actively recovering, creating increased demand for foreign currency. Additional pressure comes from budget purchases of currency under the fiscal rule, which only amplify the already existing excess of demand over supply.
The seasonal factor deserves special attention. August is historically the weakest month for the ruble. The statistics are relentless: during this period, imports traditionally rise, increasing demand for currency, while export revenues, on the contrary, decline, reducing supply in the market. This creates ideal conditions for the growth of foreign currency exchange rates.
Strategy for investors: how to protect capital
In anticipation of the expected weakening of the ruble, investors should consider several options for action. The most obvious is diversification into foreign currency or purchasing futures on it. An alternative could be currency bonds, which, as exchange rates rise, will not only bring coupon income but also increase in price.
Regarding the upcoming launch of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, this event will have no impact on the national currency's exchange rate. The digital ruble is merely a new form of circulation, not an independent financial instrument capable of changing the balance of supply and demand in the currency market.
My professional opinion: The current situation resembles the classic scenario of "buy on rumors, sell on facts." The July correction provided a short-term respite, but fundamental factors—weakening exports, growing imports, and seasonality—continue to work against the ruble. Investors focused on capital preservation should hedge currency risks in advance, without waiting for the dollar to break through the psychological mark of 80 rubles.