After a short-term technical correction in July, which allowed the ruble to partially recover its positions, the market is recording a trend change. My calculations and analysis of current macroeconomic indicators suggest that by the end of summer, we can expect a new wave of weakening of the national currency.

In June, the ruble lost about 10% of its value, and the July correction of 3-5% was only a temporary respite. This is a classic technical pullback, after which the downtrend usually resumes with renewed vigor. In my estimation, the fundamental factors determining the ruble's exchange rate are skewed in favor of further growth of the dollar, euro, and yuan.

Forecast for major currency pairs

By the end of summer, I see the following target levels:

  • US Dollar (USD/RUB) — a return to June highs and above, up to the 80 ruble mark.
  • Euro (EUR/RUB) — stabilization around 90 rubles.
  • Chinese Yuan (CNY/RUB) — approaching the 12 ruble level.

Key pressure factors

The main driving force behind the ruble's weakening is the imbalance between currency inflow and outflow. Imports are actively recovering, increasing demand for foreign currency, while export revenues stagnate, reducing supply in the market. Additional pressure comes from the seasonal factor: August is historically the weakest month for the ruble. Trade balance statistics show that during this period, imports traditionally rise, and export flows slow down, creating a structural currency deficit.

Furthermore, the effect of currency purchases under the budget rule cannot be discounted. This mechanism amplifies the already existing excess of demand over supply.

What investors should do

In anticipation of the ruble's weakening, I recommend considering the following capital protection strategies:

  • Direct purchase of currency (dollar, euro, yuan) or futures contracts on it.
  • Investments in currency bonds — as exchange rates rise, they not only appreciate but also yield coupon income.

Regarding the launch of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, I see no impact from this event on the national currency's exchange rate. This is merely a new form of circulation, not changing the fundamental basis of ruble pricing.

My professional conclusion: the current correction is not a trend reversal, but a pause before another weakening. Investors focused on capital preservation should take positions in foreign currency in advance. The market is giving a clear signal, and ignoring it now would be a strategic mistake.