After a brief technical correction in July, which allowed the ruble to partially recover its June losses, the market is once again bracing for a weakening of the national currency. My analysis of the current dynamics confirms: August will be a critical month, when pressure on the ruble intensifies with renewed force.

At the beginning of summer, the ruble lost about 10% against major currencies. In July, a correction of 3-5% was observed, but in my assessment, this was only a temporary pullback before a new wave of decline. Fundamental factors, such as the imbalance between the inflow of currency from exporters and the growing demand from importers, point to a sustained excess of demand over supply.

Exchange rate forecast for the end of summer

Based on the current situation, I expect the following target levels by the end of August:

  • US Dollar — a return to June highs and above, up to the 80 ruble mark.
  • Euro — consolidation around 90 rubles.
  • Chinese Yuan — approaching the 12 ruble level.

The key driver of this movement is the seasonal factor. August is historically the weakest month for the ruble: imports traditionally rise, increasing demand for foreign currency, while export flows stagnate, reducing supply in the market. This is a classic scenario that repeats year after year.

Additional pressure comes from the budget rule, which involves currency purchases. Together, these factors form a sustained trend towards ruble weakening.

What investors should do

In anticipation of a new wave of decline, I recommend considering the following capital protection strategies:

  • Purchasing foreign currency or futures on it.
  • Investing in currency bonds — as exchange rates rise, they not only appreciate in value but also yield coupon income.

As for the launch of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, in my opinion, this event will have no impact on the national currency's exchange rate. The digital ruble is merely a new form of circulation, not an independent financial instrument capable of altering the market balance.

My professional opinion: The market underestimates the strength of the seasonal factor in August. If the geopolitical backdrop remains stable, we will see this scenario materialize with high probability. Investors should hedge ruble risks in advance.