After a brief correction in July, the Russian ruble will once again face serious pressure. Based on my analysis of current macroeconomic trends and seasonal factors, we can expect a new wave of weakening of the national currency by the end of summer. The 10% drop in June was merely a prelude; the 3-5% pullback in July is a technical correction, not a trend reversal.

Key Pressure Factors

Currently, the market is exhibiting a classic picture of demand exceeding supply. The main drivers of ruble weakening are:

  • Trade balance imbalance: Imports continue to grow, increasing demand for foreign currency, while export revenues stagnate. This creates a structural deficit in currency supply.
  • Seasonal factor: August is historically one of the weakest months for the ruble. Statistics show that during this period, imports reach peak values, while exports hit minimums.
  • Budget rule: Currency purchases under the budget rule add additional demand, intensifying the downward movement.

Target Levels for End of Summer

Based on current dynamics and fundamental factors, I expect a return to June highs and even a breakout beyond them. Specific targets:

  • US Dollar: Return to the 80 ruble mark and above.
  • Euro: Range around 90 rubles.
  • Chinese Yuan: Approaching 12 rubles.

What Investors Should Do

Given the expected weakening of the ruble, I recommend considering several capital protection strategies. The most obvious option is purchasing foreign currency or futures on it. Alternatively, one can look at currency bonds: as exchange rates rise, they not only appreciate in value but also yield coupon income.

As for the digital ruble, whose launch is scheduled for September 1, this event will have no impact on the national currency's exchange rate. The digital ruble is merely a new form of circulation, not an independent financial instrument. Its implementation does not change the fundamental factors of supply and demand in the currency market.

My verdict: The market is in a phase of structural revaluation. The current correction is an opportunity to enter long positions in currency, not a signal for a trend reversal. By the end of summer, the ruble will likely update its lows.