The Russian ruble is bracing for a new wave of weakening. After a short-term technical correction in July, fundamental factors point to a resumption of the downtrend by the end of summer.

My market analysis confirms that the ruble's July strengthening of 3-5% was merely a temporary respite after a significant 10% drop in June. This is a classic technical correction that does not change the overall bearish sentiment toward the Russian currency.

We are now witnessing the formation of prerequisites for a new wave of weakening. According to my estimates, by the end of summer we could see a return to June highs for major currency pairs:

  • US Dollar — a return to the 80 ruble mark and above;
  • Euro — around 90 rubles;
  • Chinese Yuan — approaching 12 rubles.

The key driver of the ruble's weakening is the imbalance between currency inflow and outflow. Demand from importers is steadily growing, while supply from exporters is shrinking. Added to this is a seasonal factor: August is historically one of the weakest months for the ruble.

Trade balance statistics confirm this trend: imports are rising, increasing demand for currency, while exports are stagnating, reducing its supply on the market. The combination of these factors creates a sustained excess of demand over supply.

What investors should do

In the current situation, I recommend considering several strategies to protect savings:

  • Purchasing currency or futures on it;
  • Investing in currency bonds — as exchange rates rise, they appreciate and generate coupon income.

I note separately that the launch of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, will have no impact on the national currency's exchange rate. The digital ruble is merely a new form of circulation, not an independent financial instrument.

My professional opinion: the current ruble correction creates a false sense of stability. Fundamental factors — the trade balance, seasonality, and budget expenditures — indicate that August-September will be a period of significant weakening of the Russian currency. Investors should hedge currency risks in advance.