The Russian ruble, which experienced significant weakening in early summer, risks facing a new wave of pressure by the end of August. After a 10% drop in June and a subsequent technical correction in July that brought rates back by 3-5%, fundamental factors are once again working against the national currency.

Fundamental Factors: Supply and Demand Balance

The key driver of the weakening is an imbalance between currency inflows and outflows. Export revenues are stagnating, while imports continue to grow, increasing demand for foreign currency. Adding to this is the factor of the budget rule: the Ministry of Finance's currency purchases under the budget mechanism only intensify pressure on the ruble. Overall, a persistent excess of demand over supply is forming in the currency market.

Seasonal Factor: August — the Weakest Month for the Ruble

Statistics from past years are relentless: August is historically one of the weakest months for the ruble. This is linked to seasonal features of the trade balance — rising imports amid stagnating exports. This factor, combined with the current market conditions, makes a weakening scenario highly likely.

Forecast Targets for the End of Summer

Based on current trends, I expect the following dynamics for major currency pairs by the end of August:

  • US Dollar (USD/RUB): a return to June highs with the potential to break the 80 ruble level.
  • Euro (EUR/RUB): consolidation near the 90 ruble mark.
  • Chinese Yuan (CNY/RUB): movement toward the 12 ruble level.

What Should Investors Do?

In conditions of expected ruble weakening, investors should consider several strategies. The first is directly purchasing foreign currency or futures on it. The second is acquiring currency bonds: as exchange rates rise, they not only appreciate but also generate coupon income. It is important to note that the launch of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, will have no impact on the national currency's exchange rate, as it is merely a new form of circulation, not an independent financial instrument.

My Comment: The market is pricing in a classic "August scenario," and ignoring seasonality here would be a mistake. However, it is crucial to understand that any forecast is merely a probabilistic assessment. The key risk remains possible interventions by the Central Bank or new geopolitical factors that could radically alter the current trend.