The Russian ruble, which experienced a significant decline in early summer, is showing only a short-term respite. After a 10% drop in June, the July correction of 3-5% turned out to be merely a technical pullback, to be followed by a new, more aggressive wave of weakening. This is my analysis of the current market situation.
At the core of this forecast lies a fundamental imbalance between supply and demand in the foreign exchange market. Imports continue to grow, increasing demand for foreign currency, while export revenues stagnate, reducing supply. Additionally, August is historically the weakest month for the ruble due to seasonal features of the trade balance.
My target levels for the end of summer are as follows:
- US Dollar (USD/RUB): a return to June highs and above, up to the 80 ruble mark.
- Euro (EUR/RUB): consolidation near the 90 ruble level.
- Chinese Yuan (CNY/RUB): approaching the 12 ruble mark.
It is important to understand that the ruble's movement is now determined not by speculation, but by a real excess of demand for currency from importers and budget purchases. This creates a sustained weakening trend that will not be broken by short-term corrections.
For investors expecting further ruble decline, I see two main instruments: direct purchase of currency or futures on it, as well as investments in currency bonds, which will benefit both from exchange rate growth and coupon income.
As for the launch of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, this event will have no impact on the national currency's exchange rate. The digital ruble is merely a new form of circulation, not a new issuance instrument.
My professional opinion: The current correction is a "calm before the storm," not a trend reversal. Investors focused on capital preservation should consider August as a window of opportunity for hedging ruble risks. Ignoring the seasonal factor and fundamental imbalance could lead to significant losses.