Russia's crypto circuit is being built for cross-border settlements, but sanctions pressure is gradually cutting off access abroad. This paradox calls into question the economic rationale of the entire structure. However, as analysis shows, there is no talk of the project's "death" — the market is adapting, and key players have already rewritten the rules of the game.
The creation of a regulated crypto circuit in Russia is not just a response to sanctions, but a systemic step towards legalizing and structuring an already existing market. The main goals are not to bypass restrictions, but to create transparent infrastructure for all participants: from the state to retail investors.
Who is the crypto circuit being built for?
Analysis shows that the benefits of implementing the circuit are distributed unevenly, but cover all key segments:
- For foreign trade settlements: This is a natural extension of the EPR (experimental legal regime) to a wide range of participants. The circuit gives them additional powers to conduct cross-border transactions, bypassing traditional banking channels.
- For investment divisions: Expanding the range of digital products (including DFA), attracting international investors, and creating secondary turnover on public networks.
- For financial and credit institutions: The ability to scale lending — from long-term to short-term, as well as introduce digital instruments like factoring and debt securitization.
- For the state (Central Bank, Ministry of Finance, Federal Tax Service): Bringing the de facto existing industry out of the shadows into a regulated, taxable field. This solves issues with AML/CFT and compliance with FATF requirements.
Key point: the circuit is not intended for complete isolation. Its value lies in cross-border capability. If it is closed within the Russian Federation, the economic rationale will sharply decrease. However, as experts rightly note, it is technically impossible to completely close off digital currencies due to their decentralized nature. Entry and exit into fiat can be restricted, but not all countries support the policy of isolation, and the development of DeFi makes barriers meaningless.
Sanctions: Threat or Catalyst?
Pressure on the circuit is already being applied — within the framework of the 20th EU sanctions package. However, market participants are aware of the risks and are taking measures to mitigate them. Experts highlight three key areas of protection:
- Interaction with CIS-licensed solutions: Using intermediate links in the payment chain to blur the trail and reduce the load.
- Managing the issuance of bank-based stablecoins: This solves the problem of marking smart contracts and wallets, as it is technically impossible to track and block the entire issuance system at once — it is easily duplicated, launched from scratch, and scaled within the country.
- Using alternatives: DFA, investment products, and tokenization become a backup option for the most severe scenarios.
Thus, sanctions will not kill the circuit, but rather force it to evolve towards a more complex but resilient architecture.
Who wins and who loses?
Opinions differ here, but the overall picture is this: in the long term, only the black market will lose. Its financial flow through completely unregulated organizations will gradually decrease. All other participants will, one way or another, benefit.
However, there is also a harsher view. Large banks, already deploying their own infrastructure and able to work with crypto instruments, are clearly winning. Small and medium-sized capital, as well as startups, are losing. They have three paths: migration to other jurisdictions, selling their business to banks, or creating products that banks currently lack time for but that are in demand by the market.
Who needs crypto depositories and wallets?
Crypto depositories and wallets from banks are created not for "crypto enthusiasts," but for their own clients. This is a requirement of the times: buying real estate or a car with cryptocurrency, transferring funds abroad requires proof of the legal origin of funds and readiness for tax issues. The function of depositories is to help users stay within the legal framework.
Excesses are inevitable — both on the part of market participants and the state. But they are caused not so much by malicious intent as by incompetence. New products are complex at the technical and user levels, and it will take years to improve the qualifications of all participants.
My conclusion: Regulation is not the death of cryptocurrencies, but their maturation. The Russian crypto circuit is not an experiment, but an inevitable stage in the evolution of the market. It will not die under sanctions, but will become more complex and resilient. The main beneficiary is large institutional capital, which will get the "green light" and a client base. Small players will have to find their niche or sell out. The market is changing, and that's normal.