Russian ruble: a new wave of weakening is inevitable by the end of summer — my analysis
After a brief respite in July, when the ruble was able to partially recover its June losses, I see all signs that a new wave of national currency weakening awaits us by the end of summer. The June crash of 10% was followed by a technical correction of 3-5% in July, but this is only a temporary pause before the next surge of the dollar, euro, and yuan upward.
My target levels for the end of August to the beginning of September look like this: the dollar will return to June highs and likely break the 80 ruble mark; the euro will settle around 90; the yuan will move closer to 12 rubles. These are not just numbers—they are the result of an analysis of fundamental factors currently working against the ruble.
Why the ruble is weakening again: structural reasons
The key driver is the imbalance between currency inflow and outflow. Export revenues are stagnating, while imports, on the contrary, are growing, creating increased demand for currency. Add to this the budget rule, which amplifies currency purchases, and you get a sustained excess of demand over supply. This is not a temporary phenomenon but a structural trend.
The seasonality factor is particularly telling. August is historically the weakest month for the ruble. Imports peak during this period, while export activity declines. As a result, the supply of currency on the market decreases, and demand rises—a classic scenario for the growth of foreign exchange rates.
What investors should do: my recommendations
In the current situation, I recommend considering several strategies. First, directly buying currency or futures on it is the most obvious hedge. Second, currency bonds: as exchange rates rise, they not only appreciate but also generate coupon income. This is a double win.
I will note separately: the introduction of the digital ruble, planned for September 1, will not affect the national currency's exchange rate in any way. This is merely a new form of settlement, not a tool of currency policy. Do not expect a miracle from it.
My expert opinion: The ruble is in a zone of fundamental vulnerability, and the August decline is only a matter of time. Investors who want to preserve capital should diversify into currency assets in advance. Ignoring this signal could result in direct losses.