The Russian stock market is experiencing its longest correction in recent years. Indices have been declining for 17 consecutive weeks, and in my assessment, it is still premature to talk about a bottom. The overall correction of the Moscow Exchange index has reached nearly 25%, which can hardly be called a "slow decline"—this is a full-fledged bear trend.

The Nature of the Current Downturn

I would characterize the current situation not as stagnation, but as a classic "bear phase." The market is falling not so much under the pressure of negative news, but due to a complete lack of buying demand. Investors are in no rush to enter positions, and this is the key factor. The decline will most likely continue over the next three months. Even a possible key rate cut in the second half of the year, in my opinion, will not act as a catalyst for a reversal—its scale will likely be insufficient to fundamentally change sentiment.

Dividends and IPOs: Not Drivers, but Anchors

Dividend payments, traditionally seen as market support, are currently playing more of a role as a brake on further decline rather than a growth driver. After dividends are credited, selective purchases are possible, but their volume will clearly not be enough to reverse the trend.

As for the new IPOs expected before the end of the year, the situation here is even more alarming. In my opinion, these offerings are not so much a tool for company growth and development, but rather a "lifeline" for their finances. We are talking about companies that are going public not to scale, but to solve current problems. Buying such securities is an extremely risky strategy. The experience of recent years shows: virtually no offering has brought income to investors, and most securities trade below their offering price.

Key Drivers for the Second Half of 2026

The main factor for the market remains the economic situation and the dynamics of the key rate. If no significant events occur on the geopolitical track, it will be the rate that determines investor sentiment—both in the bond market and the stock market. Dividend-paying companies (especially those paying at a rate comparable to or above the key rate) will perform better than the market, but confident growth from them is not to be expected. New IPOs, as already noted, carry more risks than opportunities.

Tokenization and Strategy for the Investor

I am extremely skeptical about tokenizing shares through crypto infrastructure. The main problem is the accounting of rights. Being a shareholder whose rights are recorded in the register and owning tokens are fundamentally different things. Tokenization opens up opportunities for "gray" capital, but for large investors, it is more of a risk than an advantage. There are virtually no real tax breaks or preferences that would interest large capital.

Recommendations for the Retail Investor

Over a 2-3 year horizon, I recommend adhering to a conservative strategy:

  • Bonds — the foundation of the portfolio, with a lion's share in OFZs (short and medium-term), with a possible long-term portion depending on the risk profile.
  • Stocks — only a small share, cautiously and with regular purchases. No one knows when the bottom will be—this year, next, or in 3-5 years.
  • Gold — definitely not. This is a non-investment and uninteresting asset.
  • Cash — acceptable as a wait-and-see position, placed in deposits, overnight, or repo transactions.

My conclusion: the current correction is not a temporary phenomenon, but a structural revaluation of the market. Investors should prepare for a prolonged period of low returns and high volatility. Diversification and a conservative approach are the only sensible strategy for the next 12-18 months.