The Russian stock market is experiencing a prolonged correction that has lasted for 17 consecutive weeks. During this period, the Moscow Exchange index has corrected by nearly 25%, and according to expert estimates, it is still premature to talk about an imminent bottom. The market situation is characterized not as stagnation, but as a pronounced "bearish" trend, where declines occur even in the absence of negative news — simply due to a lack of demand.
Why does the market continue to fall?
The key driver keeping the market in the red zone remains the high key rate of the Central Bank. It is currently exerting a decisive influence on investor sentiment, diverting capital from the stock market to the debt market. Even the expected rate cut in the second half of the year, according to analysts, is unlikely to become a super-positive catalyst — its magnitude will likely be too modest to reverse the trend.
Dividend payments, traditionally considered a support for the market, in current conditions play more of a "brake" role for the decline rather than a growth driver. After ex-dividend dates and dividend crediting, local purchases are possible, but their volume is insufficient for a full-fledged reversal. New IPOs that may still take place before the end of the year also do not inspire optimism: based on the experience of recent years, most offerings have not generated returns for investors, and many securities trade below their offering price. Essentially, these are "lifebuoys" for companies trying to improve their finances, not growth stories.
Tokenization and strategies for investors
Interest in trading tokenized stocks through crypto infrastructure remains niche and is associated with serious risks, especially regarding the accounting of ownership rights. For large institutional players, this is more of a risk than an advantage, and for small portfolios, it is an alternative with high uncertainty. In Russia, movement towards tokenization of foreign stocks has not yet been observed, although there are enough available instruments for investing in foreign securities: from direct purchases through brokers to futures on the Moscow Exchange.
My recommendation for a retail investor with a 2–3 year horizon: the foundation of the portfolio should consist of bonds (OFZ and medium-duration corporate issues). Stocks should only be a small share, with regular but cautious purchases, as it is unknown in which year the bottom will be reached — this year, next year, or in five years. I consider gold to be an absolutely non-investment and uninteresting asset in the current paradigm. Cash is acceptable as a waiting position, placed in deposits or repo transactions.
My analytical conclusion: The Russian market is in a phase of structural compression, and the current correction is not just a cyclical decline, but a reflection of a fundamental imbalance between tight monetary policy and the absence of new growth catalysts. Investors should prepare for a prolonged period of low returns in stocks and focus on capital protection through debt instruments.