After a brief technical correction in July, the Russian ruble will face a new wave of pressure by the end of summer. The June collapse of 10% was only partially offset by a July pullback of 3–5%, and, as my calculations and analysis of market dynamics show, this was merely a respite before another advance of the dollar, euro, and yuan strengthening.
Key targets for late August to early September look like this:
- US Dollar (USD/RUB) — a return to June highs and above, up to the level of 80 rubles.
- Euro (EUR/RUB) — stabilization around the 90 ruble mark.
- Chinese Yuan (CNY/RUB) — approaching 12 rubles.
The fundamental picture speaks for itself. The ruble exchange rate is primarily a balance between the inflow of currency from exporters and demand from importers. At the moment, we are seeing a sustained excess of demand over supply. Additionally, there is a seasonal factor: August is historically one of the weakest months for the ruble. Imports traditionally rise, increasing demand for currency, while export revenue stagnates, reducing supply in the market.
What should investors do? In anticipation of the ruble's weakening, I highlight two most rational scenarios for preserving capital:
- Purchasing physical currency or futures on it.
- Investing in foreign currency bonds — as the exchange rate rises, they not only appreciate but also yield coupon income.
As for the upcoming launch of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, this instrument will have no impact on the national currency's exchange rate. The digital ruble is merely a new form of non-cash money, not a new monetary unit. Its introduction does not change the fundamental factors of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market.
My professional opinion: The current correction is a "calm before the storm." The ruble is in a high-risk zone, and investors focused on preserving purchasing power should consider hedging currency risks now, without waiting for a new collapse.