Summer is in full swing, and the calm in the currency market may only be a temporary respite. After the June crash, when the ruble lost about 10% of its value, the July correction of 3-5% looks like merely a technical bounce. My analysis, based on trade flow data and macroeconomic indicators, suggests this is the calm before the storm: a new wave of ruble weakening awaits us by the end of summer.

Why the ruble will fall again

The key driver is a fundamental imbalance between currency supply and demand. Imports are actively recovering, creating increased demand for dollars, euros, and yuan. At the same time, export revenue, the main source of currency supply, is stagnating. This situation is exacerbated by a seasonal factor: August is historically the weakest month for the ruble. Statistics show that during this period, imports peak, while exports, on the contrary, slow down, squeezing the supply of currency on the market.

As a result, in my estimation, by the end of summer we will see the following target levels:

  • US Dollar (USD/RUB): a return to June highs and above, up to the 80 mark.
  • Euro (EUR/RUB): consolidation around 90.
  • Chinese Yuan (CNY/RUB): approaching the 12 level.
This is not just a speculative forecast, but a logical consequence of the current dynamics of the trade balance and the budget rule, which amplifies currency purchases.

What investors should do

In anticipation of the ruble's weakening, a sensible strategy is to diversify savings into foreign currency. The most preferable instruments appear to be purchasing cash currency or futures on it, as well as currency bonds. The latter are particularly interesting: as the exchange rate rises, they will not only yield coupon income but also increase in price, providing a double benefit.

It is worth noting separately that the launch of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, will have no impact on the national currency's exchange rate. This is merely a new form of circulation, not a monetary policy tool or a factor changing demand for rubles.

Analyst's comment: The market is clearly underestimating the strength of the August seasonal factor. Investors who are not currently hedging their ruble positions risk facing a serious portfolio drawdown by September. The ruble's weakening will not be a sharp crash, but a steady trend—this scenario is precisely the most dangerous for those accustomed to volatility and expecting a quick rebound.