The currency market is entering a phase of increased volatility. After a short-term technical correction in July, which allowed the ruble to slightly recover positions following a 10% collapse in June, analysts are recording a trend change. The July pullback of 3-5% was merely a breather before a new wave of pressure on the national currency.

From a fundamental perspective, the ruble's dynamics are determined by the classic balance of supply and demand from exporters and importers. However, the key catalyst for the upcoming weakening is a seasonal factor: August is historically the weakest month for the ruble. Imports traditionally grow, increasing demand for foreign currency, while exports stagnate, reducing its supply on the market. Additional pressure comes from currency purchases under the budget rule.

Target Levels and Market Expectations

Based on the current environment, by the end of summer we may see a return to June highs and their renewal. The targets for the main currency pairs are as follows:

  • US Dollar (USD/RUB): return to the 80 mark and above.
  • Euro (EUR/RUB): consolidation around 90.
  • Chinese Yuan (CNY/RUB): movement towards 12.

The combination of factors — seasonality, trade balance imbalance, and fiscal operations — unequivocally points to an excess of demand over supply. This creates a stable backdrop for the ruble's weakening in the coming weeks.

What Should an Investor Do?

In anticipation of the expected decline in the national currency's exchange rate, holders of ruble savings face the question of hedging risks. The most obvious and liquid instruments for capital protection are:

  • Direct purchase of currency (dollar, euro, yuan) or futures contracts on them.
  • Currency bonds: as the exchange rate of the currency rises, these securities not only increase in value but also continue to generate coupon income, providing a double benefit.

It is important to note that events such as the launch of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, will not have a direct impact on the exchange rate. The digital form of the national currency is merely a new way of its circulation, not a new emission or exchange rate-forming factor.

Expert Opinion: The market is entering a zone of increased risk for ruble assets. Investors focused on capital preservation should consider diversification strategies in advance, increasing the share of the currency component. Ignoring the seasonal factor and fundamental imbalance could lead to direct losses in ruble equivalent.