After a short-term technical correction in July, which only slightly smoothed out the June collapse, the Russian currency is once again under pressure. My analysis of the macroeconomic picture and trade flows indicates that a new wave of ruble weakening awaits us by the end of summer. June losses amounted to about 10%, and the July pullback of 3-5% was only a temporary respite before a new round.
The forecast is based on a fundamental imbalance. Demand for foreign currency from importers is steadily growing, while supply from exporters, on the contrary, is stagnating. This is a classic scenario for August, which historically is one of the weakest months for the ruble. The seasonal factor plays a key role here: export volumes are declining, while imports, on the contrary, are reaching peak values, creating a persistent shortage of currency supply in the market.
Forecast Targets
According to my estimates, by the end of summer, the US dollar could return to June highs and even surpass the 80 ruble mark. The euro, accordingly, will trade near the 90 ruble level, and the Chinese yuan will aim for 12 rubles. These figures look quite realistic, given the current excess of demand over supply.
What Should Investors Do?
In anticipation of further ruble weakening, I recommend considering several strategies. First, directly purchasing currency or futures on it. Second, paying attention to currency bonds: as exchange rates rise, they not only appreciate but also generate coupon income. It is important to understand that the introduction of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, will have no impact on the national currency's exchange rate. This is merely a new form of circulation, not a monetary policy tool.
My Expert Opinion: The market is already pricing in this scenario, so investors should not wait for the "bottom." The optimal strategy is to start diversifying into currency assets now, rather than after the ruble hits new lows. Fundamental factors, such as seasonality and the trade balance, speak for themselves.