In recent years, stablecoins pegged to the US dollar have ceased to be just a tool for traders. They have evolved into a full-fledged financial channel that, according to my calculations, could radically alter the dynamics of currency crises in developing economies.
Based on the data I have analyzed, the main threat lies in speed. Traditionally, with a fixed exchange rate, central banks have a time lag to respond to capital outflows. However, stablecoins eliminate this barrier. During times of economic uncertainty, the public and businesses can instantly convert national currency into digital dollars, bypassing the banking system. This creates a "digital run" effect on central bank reserves.
My data analysis confirms: the higher the penetration of stablecoins in an economy, the faster panic spreads. Information about devaluation risks is disseminated not through traditional media, but through decentralized networks, accelerating decisions for a mass shift into dollar-denominated assets. Even with relatively weak external shocks, this can trigger a full-blown balance of payments crisis.
Catalyst, Not a Cause
It is important to emphasize: stablecoins themselves do not create macroeconomic imbalances. They act as a catalyst, exposing already existing problems. In my assessment, the greatest risk is concentrated in countries where trust in the national currency is low and monetary policy is weak. In such jurisdictions, a fixed exchange rate is maintained solely through administrative measures, and stablecoins provide citizens with a "back door" to flee into hard currency.
Regulators have long needed to reconsider their approach to assessing the stability of currency regimes. Traditional metrics, such as the volume of gold and foreign exchange reserves, are no longer a sufficient indicator. It is necessary to account for the volume of liquidity flowing through stablecoins. In December 2025, I already warned that central banks in countries with high inflation risk losing control over capital movements. Today, this risk is materializing.
For reference: in June, the global turnover of stablecoins reached a record $1.79 trillion. This is not just a number—it is the volume of liquidity that can be directed against any weak currency at any moment.
Expert commentary: In my view, the only way for countries with fixed exchange rates to minimize this risk is either to impose strict restrictions on the use of stablecoins (which is technically challenging) or to transition to more flexible exchange rate regimes. Ignoring this trend could mean that the next currency crisis unfolds not over weeks, but within hours.