After a minor technical correction in July, which allowed the ruble to recover only 3-5% of its 10% June collapse, the Russian currency is once again under pressure. My analysis of the market and fundamental factors indicates that by the end of summer, we will face another wave of ruble weakening, and the current rebound is merely a temporary respite before a new round of decline.
Why the ruble is weakening again: key drivers
The main driving force behind the ruble's exchange rate remains the imbalance between currency inflow and outflow. On one hand, we are seeing a seasonal increase in imports—businesses are actively purchasing goods ahead of the autumn season, creating heightened demand for the dollar, euro, and yuan. On the other hand, export revenues are stagnating. The volume of currency sales by exporters is shrinking, meaning supply in the market is also falling.
The combination of these factors creates a sustained excess of demand over supply. August is historically one of the weakest months for the ruble, and this year will be no exception. Seasonality works against the national currency: rising imports and shrinking export revenues put pressure on the exchange rate.
Forecast for target levels
Based on current dynamics and fundamental indicators, I expect that by the end of summer, the dollar will return to its June highs and likely surpass them, reaching the 80 ruble mark. The EUR/RUB pair will probably settle near 90 rubles, and the yuan will approach 12 rubles. These are not just technical levels—they reflect real demand for currency from importers and budget purchases under the fiscal rule.
What investors should do: a protection strategy
In the current conditions, I recommend that investors consider several options for protecting their savings. The first and most obvious is buying currency or futures on it. The second, more conservative but also more profitable option, is currency bonds. As the exchange rate rises, they not only appreciate in value but also generate coupon income.
I note separately that the launch of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, will have no impact on the national currency's exchange rate. This is merely a new form of circulation, not a tool of currency policy. The fundamental factors remain unchanged.
My conclusion: The current correction of the ruble is only a temporary pause. The fundamental drivers (seasonality, export/import imbalance) continue to work against the ruble. Investors should prepare for a new wave of weakening and hedge risks in a timely manner.