An analysis by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified a new threat to economies with fixed exchange rates: the rapid spread of stablecoins pegged to the US dollar. According to my own research on this data, such digital assets can not only increase the vulnerability of these countries but also accelerate the onset of currency crises.
The key finding is that "stablecoins" simplify access for the population and businesses to digital dollar assets. During periods of economic instability, this creates a channel for a rapid outflow of funds from the national currency, directly increasing pressure on central banks' foreign exchange reserves. Maintaining a fixed exchange rate under such conditions becomes critically challenging.
The IMF model demonstrates a direct correlation: the higher the level of stablecoin penetration into the economy, the faster information about macroeconomic risks spreads. This, in turn, increases the likelihood of a mass shift by market participants into dollar assets, even with relatively small external shocks. Thus, stablecoins act as a catalyst, turning local problems into a full-scale crisis.
It is important to emphasize that stablecoins themselves are not the root cause of financial instability. However, they can significantly amplify existing macroeconomic imbalances. They pose the greatest threat to countries with low trust in the national currency, weak monetary policy, and a rigid exchange rate peg. Regulators urgently need to reconsider their approaches, taking this new reality into account.
Earlier, in December 2025, the organization's experts had already noted the risks of losing control over capital movements for countries with high inflation due to dollar stablecoins. And in June, the global turnover of these assets reached a record $1.79 trillion, which only confirms the scale of the problem.
My expert opinion: The stablecoin market is becoming not just a tool for trading but a full-fledged macroeconomic factor. Countries with fixed exchange rates, especially developing ones, should urgently develop their own central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) or introduce strict restrictions on the use of private stablecoins; otherwise, they risk losing their currency sovereignty.