The Russian ruble, having experienced a significant decline in early summer, is showing only a short-term technical correction. After a 10% collapse in June, the national currency recovered only 3-5% in July. However, in my analysis, this is not the start of a sustainable recovery, but merely a breather before a new wave of weakening.

Fundamental Pressure Factors

The key driver for the ruble remains the imbalance between supply and demand for foreign currency. Imports, which traditionally rise in summer, create steady demand, while export revenues stagnate. This classic seasonal pattern, amplified by the budget rule, creates a structural advantage for currency buyers.

My calculations show that August is historically one of the weakest months for the ruble. Rising imports and a reduction in currency supply from exporters put pressure on the exchange rate. Under current conditions, without significant changes in the trade balance, this trend will only intensify.

Target Levels for the End of Summer

Based on current dynamics and fundamental factors, I expect that by the end of August we will see a return to June highs and even a renewal of them. Key benchmarks:

  • US Dollar (USD/RUB): return to the area of 80 rubles and above.
  • Euro (EUR/RUB): consolidation around the 90 ruble mark.
  • Chinese Yuan (CNY/RUB): approaching the level of 12 rubles.

This is not a speculative forecast, but a logical consequence of the current macroeconomic backdrop.

Strategy for Investors

In the face of an expected weakening of the ruble, savers should consider protective instruments. The most obvious options are direct purchase of currency or futures on it. Currency bonds also look attractive: in the event of an exchange rate increase, they will not only yield coupon income but also rise in price.

As for the launch of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, this event is purely technological in nature. As I have repeatedly emphasized, this is just a new form of the national currency, not an independent instrument. Its implementation will have no direct impact on the ruble exchange rate.

Cryptalist's Comment: In my opinion, the current ruble correction is a classic "trap" for those hoping for a trend reversal. Fundamental factors, including seasonality and structural imbalance, clearly indicate continued weakening. I recommend investors not to ignore this signal and hedge currency risks in advance.