The Russian currency, which experienced a serious 10% drop in June, only partially recovered its positions in July, recouping 3-5%. However, this short-term bounce is merely a technical correction. A new, more powerful wave of ruble weakening is already visible on the horizon, which will hit the market by the end of summer.

Fundamental Pressure Factors

The main driver of the upcoming decline is the classic imbalance of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market. Imports, which traditionally pick up at the end of summer, create increased demand for the dollar, euro, and yuan. At the same time, export revenues, on the contrary, are stagnating, reducing the supply of foreign currency. An additional catalyst is the budget rule, which mandates the purchase of currency for the Ministry of Finance, further increasing pressure on the ruble.

Forecast for Key Pairs

Based on current dynamics, the targets for the end of summer look as follows:

  • US Dollar (USD/RUB): a return to June highs and above, up to the 80 ruble mark.
  • Euro (EUR/RUB): movement towards the 90 ruble area.
  • Chinese Yuan (CNY/RUB): approaching the 12 ruble level.

Seasonal Factor — "August Weakness"

Seasonality should not be discounted. August is historically one of the weakest months for the Russian currency. Balance of payments statistics confirm: the growth of imports and the decline in export revenues during this period create ideal conditions for the appreciation of foreign currencies.

What Should Investors Do?

In anticipation of the ruble's weakening, a number of defensive strategies seem logical. First, directly buying currency or futures on it. Second, purchasing foreign currency bonds — if the exchange rate rises, they will not only generate coupon income but also increase in price.

As for the digital ruble, the launch of which is scheduled for September 1, this event will have no impact on the national currency's exchange rate. The digital ruble is merely a new form of money, not a new tool of monetary policy.

Expert Opinion: In the current conditions, I recommend considering the purchase of currency not as speculation, but as a hedge against ruble risks. Given the structural nature of the imbalance (declining exports amid rising imports), pressure on the ruble will persist until the end of the year, and the August decline could be just the beginning of a longer-term trend.