After a brief period of technical correction in July, the Russian ruble will come under pressure again. Based on my analysis of fundamental factors, we can expect another wave of national currency weakening by the end of summer. June losses amounted to about 10%, and the July pullback of 3–5% was only a temporary respite, not a trend reversal.

Key Currency Targets

My calculations point to the following target levels by the end of summer:

  • US Dollar — a return to June highs and above, up to 80 rubles;
  • Euro — stabilization near 90 rubles;
  • Chinese Yuan — approaching 12 rubles.

Fundamental Drivers of Pressure

The ruble's dynamics are determined by the classic balance of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market. The inflow of currency from exporters is stagnating, while imports continue to grow, increasing demand for foreign currency. An additional factor is currency purchases under the budget rule. Together, this creates a sustained excess of demand over supply.

I particularly highlight the seasonal factor: August is historically the weakest month for the ruble. During this period, import volumes traditionally peak, while export revenues, on the contrary, decline. This is a classic picture of the trade balance that repeats year after year.

What Investors Should Do

In anticipation of the ruble's weakening, I recommend considering the following strategies:

  • Purchasing foreign currency or futures on it;
  • Investing in currency bonds — as exchange rates rise, they not only appreciate but also generate coupon income.

As for the launch of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, this event, in my opinion, will have no impact on the national currency's exchange rate. The digital ruble is merely a new form of circulation, not an independent economic factor.

My expert conclusion: The current correction is an opportunity for those who want to diversify their savings in currency. Fundamental factors and seasonality are working against the ruble, and August could be a month of new lows. I recommend hedging risks in advance.