After a brief respite in July, when the ruble was able to partially recoup its June losses, the market is once again bracing for serious pressure. My analysis shows that the current correction was merely a technical pause, and fundamental factors point to a new wave of weakening of the national currency by the end of summer.
Why the ruble is under pressure again
June was a tough month for the ruble: the exchange rate lost about 10% against major currencies. July saw a slight pullback of 3-5%, but this was only a temporary lull. We are now seeing the formation of prerequisites for a return to the trend of strengthening the dollar, euro, and yuan.
My targets for the end of summer are as follows:
- Dollar — a return to June highs and above, up to the 80 ruble mark;
- Euro — around 90 rubles;
- Yuan — closer to 12 rubles.
Fundamental factors of weakening
The key driver is the imbalance of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market. On one hand, imports are actively growing, increasing demand for currency. On the other, exports are stagnating, reducing supply. Additional pressure comes from currency purchases under the budget rule.
The seasonal factor deserves special attention. August is historically the weakest month for the ruble. This is due to the specifics of the trade balance: imports traditionally rise during this period, while exports remain at low levels, creating increased demand for foreign currency amid shrinking supply.
What investors should do
Given the expected weakening of the ruble, I recommend considering the following strategies:
- Buying currency or futures on it;
- Investing in currency bonds — as exchange rates rise, they appreciate and generate coupon income.
As for the introduction of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, this event will have no impact on the national currency's exchange rate. The digital ruble is merely a new form of circulation, not a monetary policy tool.
My verdict: The market underestimates the strength of the seasonal factor and the trade balance imbalance. August could be the month when the ruble breaks through psychologically important levels, and investors should prepare in advance for this volatility.