After a brief period of technical correction in July, the ruble has come under pressure again. Analysts agree that by the end of summer, we can expect another wave of weakening of the Russian currency. The 10% collapse in June was followed only by a partial rebound of 3–5% in mid-July, which, in my assessment, is a classic bullish pullback before a new downward move.

The current dynamics of the ruble are determined by a fundamental imbalance between currency inflows and outflows. On one hand, export revenues are stagnating; on the other, imports continue to grow, increasing demand for the dollar, euro, and yuan. Added to this is a seasonal factor: August is traditionally one of the weakest months for the ruble. Trade balance statistics show that during this period, imports peak, while exports, on the contrary, slow down. As a result, the supply of currency on the market decreases, while demand remains high.

Based on an analysis of market factors, I identify the following target levels for the major currency pairs by the end of summer:

  • Dollar (USD/RUB) — a return to June highs and a breakout of the 80 ruble level;
  • Euro (EUR/RUB) — consolidation near the 90 ruble mark;
  • Yuan (CNY/RUB) — movement toward 12 rubles.

The fiscal rule factor deserves special attention. Currency purchases under this mechanism only increase pressure on the ruble, creating additional demand. Overall, the excess of demand over supply becomes obvious, and this is not a temporary phenomenon but a structural trend.

What should investors do? In anticipation of the ruble's weakening, I consider several strategies: direct currency purchases, buying futures on the dollar or euro, as well as currency bonds. The latter are particularly interesting — as the exchange rate rises, they appreciate in value while simultaneously providing coupon income.

As for the launch of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, this event will have no impact on the national currency's exchange rate. The digital ruble is merely a new form of circulation, not an independent market instrument.

My conclusion: August promises to be challenging for the ruble. Investors should hedge risks in advance by fixing part of their savings in foreign currency or instruments tied to its exchange rate. Ignoring seasonal and fundamental signals could result in a loss of purchasing power for ruble savings.