The market is recording an alarming signal: after a brief respite in July, the Russian ruble is re-entering a zone of turbulence. The technical correction observed in mid-summer was only a temporary pause before a larger movement. According to my estimates, by the end of August we will see the dollar return to its June highs with the prospect of breaking through the 80 ruble level, the euro reaching the 90 mark, and the yuan heading toward 12.
The ruble's June decline was about 10%, and the July pullback of 3–5% only masked the depth of the problem. The key driver is the imbalance between currency inflows and outflows. Export revenues are stagnating, while imports continue to grow, fueling demand for foreign currency. Additional pressure comes from budget purchases of currency under the fiscal rule—a systemic factor that will not disappear.
Seasonality deserves special attention. August is historically the weakest month for the ruble. Imports during this period traditionally peak, while export flows, on the contrary, slow down. The supply of currency on the market decreases, while demand rises—a classic scenario for the weakening of the national currency.
What investors should do
In the current conditions, a reasonable strategy is timely diversification. Direct purchase of currency or futures on it remains a working tool. An alternative option is currency bonds: when exchange rates rise, they not only appreciate but also generate coupon income.
I note separately: the launch of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, will have no impact on the exchange rate. It is merely a form of circulation, not a new economic factor.
My conclusion: the August weakening of the ruble is not a matter of hypothesis, but a matter of time. The current technical bounce is an ideal opportunity to lock in positions in ruble-denominated assets and transition to currency instruments. Ignoring this signal could cost investors a significant portion of their capital by the beginning of autumn.