After a short-term technical correction in July, which only slightly offset the June collapse, the Russian ruble is once again on the verge of a serious weakening. My calculations and analysis of market flows indicate that a new wave of pressure on the national currency awaits us by the end of summer.
June was catastrophic for the ruble — a 10% loss against major currencies. The July rebound of 3-5% is not a trend reversal, but merely a technical correction before a new round of decline. The fundamental picture suggests that the dollar, euro, and yuan are preparing to strengthen, while the ruble is set for another weakening.
Target levels by the end of summer
According to my analysis, by the end of August we may see the following benchmarks:
- US dollar — a return to June highs and above, up to the 80 ruble mark;
- Euro — consolidation around 90 rubles;
- Chinese yuan — approaching 12 rubles.
The key driver of this movement is the imbalance between currency inflow and outflow. Export revenue is stagnating, while imports continue to grow, creating increased demand for currency. Added to this is the seasonal factor: August is historically the weakest month for the ruble.
Seasonality and trade balance
The statistics are relentless: in August, imports traditionally peak, while exports, on the contrary, slow down. This leads to a reduction in currency supply on the market amid simultaneous growth in demand. The budget rule mechanism also plays its role, intensifying currency purchases.
Thus, the combination of factors — seasonality, weak exports, growing imports, and the technical picture — indicates that demand for currency will consistently exceed supply.
What investors should do
In anticipation of the ruble's weakening, I recommend considering the following strategies:
- Purchasing currency or futures on it;
- Investing in currency bonds — as exchange rates rise, they not only appreciate but also generate coupon income.
It is important to note that the introduction of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, will have no impact on the national currency's exchange rate. This is merely a new form of circulation, not a monetary policy tool.
Expert opinion from Cryptalist: The market is currently pricing in a fundamental scenario of ruble weakening, and the July technical correction only confirms the strength of the downtrend. Investors should hedge currency risks, but remember: any forecasts are probabilities, not guarantees. Monitor the dynamics of export flows and central bank decisions — they may adjust the trajectory.