Market analysts agree: after a short-term technical correction in July, the ruble will face a new wave of weakening by the end of summer. The current dynamics of the currency pair indicate that the July recovery was merely a temporary respite before a more significant move.

At the beginning of summer, the Russian currency lost about 10% of its value, and in July we observed a partial pullback of 3-5%. However, in my assessment, this growth was purely technical in nature and does not reflect fundamental changes in the market. The trend remains downward, and I expect another strengthening of the dollar, euro, and yuan in the coming weeks.

Forecast targets for the end of summer

Based on the current market conditions, I highlight the following target levels:

  • US Dollar — a return to June highs and above, up to the 80 ruble mark;
  • Euro — stabilization around 90 rubles;
  • Chinese Yuan — approaching the 12 ruble level.

The key driver of the ruble's weakening is the imbalance between currency inflows and outflows. Export revenues are stagnating, while imports continue to grow, increasing demand for foreign currency. Additional pressure comes from budget purchases of currency under the fiscal rule.

Seasonal factor as a catalyst

Seasonality deserves special attention. August is historically the weakest month for the ruble. This is due to the characteristic dynamics of the trade balance:

  • Imports traditionally reach peak values, which increases demand for currency;
  • Exports, on the other hand, show a seasonal slowdown, reducing the supply of currency on the market.

Thus, the combination of fundamental and seasonal factors creates a sustained excess of demand over supply, which will inevitably lead to an increase in foreign exchange rates.

Recommendations for investors

In anticipation of the ruble's weakening, I recommend considering the following capital protection strategies:

  • Purchasing foreign currency or futures on it;
  • Investing in currency bonds, which not only protect against devaluation but also generate coupon income.

As for the launch of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, in my opinion, this event will have no impact on the national currency's exchange rate. The digital ruble is merely a new form of circulation, not an independent instrument of monetary policy.

My conclusion: August will be a serious test for the ruble. Investors should prepare in advance for volatility and consider options for hedging currency risks. Fundamental factors unequivocally point to a continuation of the weakening trend.