The proliferation of stablecoins pegged to the US dollar poses a serious challenge for countries with fixed exchange rates. In a new study, economists from the International Monetary Fund concluded that such digital assets can accelerate the development of currency crises, increasing the vulnerability of entire economies.
The key mechanism here is the simplification of access for the population and businesses to digital dollar assets. During periods of economic uncertainty, stablecoins allow for the instantaneous withdrawal of funds from the national currency. This creates additional pressure on central bank reserves, which are forced to spend them to maintain the fixed exchange rate, ultimately undermining their stability in the long term.
Modeling a Crisis Scenario
The model developed by the IMF demonstrates a direct correlation: the higher the level of stablecoin penetration in the economy, the faster information about potential risks spreads. This, in turn, increases the likelihood of a mass shift by market participants into dollar assets. Notably, such a scenario can develop even with relatively small external shocks that would not normally lead to a crisis.
It is important to emphasize that stablecoins themselves are not the root cause of financial instability. They act as a catalyst, exacerbating already existing macroeconomic problems. This poses the greatest danger to countries with low trust in the national currency, weak monetary policy, and, of course, a fixed exchange rate regime.
Regulatory Implications
In light of these findings, regulators need to fundamentally reconsider approaches to ensuring financial stability. Accounting for the growing role of stablecoins should become a mandatory element when assessing the resilience of currency regimes. In December 2025, experts already warned about the risks of losing control over capital movements for countries with high inflation. Now we see that the problem is much deeper and affects even those economies considered relatively stable.
Let me remind you that in June of this year, the global turnover of stablecoins reached a record level of $1.79 trillion. This is not just a number—it is an indicator of how quickly the global financial architecture is changing.
My comment: The IMF study confirms what I have been saying for years: stablecoins are not just a convenient tool for trading, but a powerful geopolitical and macroeconomic factor. Countries with fixed exchange rates, especially developing ones, should view this trend not as a distant threat, but as a current challenge. Ignoring the role of the digital dollar in the economy could lead to regulators simply losing control of the situation at the most inopportune moment.