After a brief technical correction in July, the Russian ruble will come under pressure again. Based on my estimates, grounded in market dynamics and fundamental factors, we can expect another wave of national currency weakening by the end of summer.
At the beginning of summer, the ruble lost about 10% of its value. The July correction of 3-5% was only a temporary respite—a typical technical pullback within a downward trend. Now I see all the prerequisites for the dollar, euro, and yuan to resume their growth.
My target levels for the end of summer
- US Dollar (USD/RUB): a return to June highs and above, up to the 80 ruble mark.
- Euro (EUR/RUB): consolidation around 90 rubles.
- Chinese Yuan (CNY/RUB): approaching the 12 ruble level.
The key driver of the ruble's weakening is the imbalance between currency inflow and outflow. Export volumes are stagnating, reducing the supply of currency on the market. At the same time, imports are growing, increasing demand. Add to this the fiscal rule, which amplifies currency purchases, and you get a sustained excess of demand over supply.
Separately, the seasonal factor is worth noting. August is historically the weakest month for the ruble. Imports traditionally expand during this period, while export revenues slow down. This creates ideal conditions for further growth in foreign exchange rates.
What should investors do?
Against the backdrop of the expected ruble weakening, I recommend considering the following strategies:
- Purchasing foreign currency or futures contracts on it.
- Investing in currency bonds—as the exchange rate rises, they appreciate and generate coupon income.
My professional opinion: The introduction of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, will have no impact on the national currency's exchange rate. It is merely a new form of circulation, not a new economic factor. The market is currently pricing in only fundamental macroeconomic imbalances, and I expect to see this scenario play out by the end of August.