Analysis of on-chain data over the past week shows a significant increase in activity among large investors: the volume of account top-ups on leading exchanges rose by 18% compared to the previous period. This signals growing pressure from "whales" who are preparing for active market moves.
Special attention should be paid to the volume distribution: 73% of all incoming transactions were directed to spot wallets, while the remaining 27% went to derivative platforms. This ratio indicates a predominance of long-term accumulation strategies rather than short-term speculation. The average transaction size has meanwhile increased to 12.4 BTC, which is 9% higher than the monthly average.
From a historical perspective, such surges in deposit activity often precede phases of high volatility. For example, in March 2023, a similar 22% increase in volumes over three days preceded a 15% Bitcoin rally. However, the current situation is complicated by the macroeconomic backdrop: the US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to hold above 105 points, which traditionally puts pressure on risky assets.
It is important to note that the increase in top-ups is not accompanied by a proportional rise in trading volumes — this imbalance may indicate that funds remain "in standby mode" rather than being introduced into active trading. This is a classic accumulation pattern ahead of a major move.
Expert opinion: In my view, the current capital inflow is laying the foundation for a potential bullish breakout in the next 1–2 weeks. However, traders should closely monitor the $67,500 level for BTC — a breakout with volume would confirm the growth scenario, while losing the $64,000 support could trigger a sharp profit-taking event.