The foreign exchange market is preparing for another round of pressure on the ruble. After a short-term technical correction in July, which allowed the ruble to partially recover June's losses, analysts are noting the formation of prerequisites for a new weakening of the national currency by the end of summer.

Key Figures and Trends

At the beginning of summer, the ruble lost about 10% of its value, and in July, a slight pullback of 3-5% was observed. However, according to experts, this was only a temporary pause. Technical analysis points to a resumption of the upward trend for the dollar, euro, and yuan, which means a new wave of pressure on the ruble. Forecast targets for the end of summer are as follows:

  • US Dollar: a return to June highs and above, up to the 80 ruble mark.
  • Euro: consolidation around 90 rubles.
  • Chinese Yuan: approaching the 12 ruble level.

Fundamental Drivers of Weakening

The ruble exchange rate, as is known, is determined by the balance of currency inflows and outflows from exporters and importers. This balance is now shifting towards a supply deficit. Two key factors are at play:

  • Seasonality: August is historically the weakest month for the ruble. Imports traditionally rise during this period, increasing demand for currency, while exports stagnate, reducing supply.
  • Budget Rule: Currency purchases under the budget rule intensify pressure on the ruble, creating additional demand for foreign currency in the domestic market.

The combination of these factors creates a sustained excess of demand over supply, which will push the ruble exchange rate down.

What Should Investors Do?

In anticipation of the expected weakening of the ruble, two main scenarios for protecting savings are being considered:

  • Direct purchase of currency or futures on it.
  • Investments in currency bonds — they not only provide coupon income but also appreciate in value as the exchange rate rises.

It is important to note that the launch of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, will have no impact on the national currency's exchange rate. This is merely a new form of circulation, not an independent instrument of the foreign exchange market.

Expert Opinion from Cryptalist: The market is entering a classic "bearish" season for the ruble. The coincidence of the seasonal factor and structural imbalance (declining export revenue amid growing imports) makes the forecast for weakening highly likely. Investors should review the currency component of their portfolios in advance to minimize the risks of ruble savings depreciation.