The Russian ruble is bracing for another round of pressure. After a short technical correction in July, which allowed the national currency to partially recover June's losses, the market is once again pricing in a weakening scenario. Based on my analysis of current macroeconomic indicators, by the end of summer the dollar could return to levels near 80 rubles, the euro around 90, and the yuan approach 12.

Why the July correction was just a breather

At the start of summer, the ruble lost about 10% of its value. The July pullback of 3-5% is not a trend reversal, but a classic technical correction following a strong move. The fundamental factors determining the exchange rate remain unchanged: an imbalance between the inflow of foreign currency from exporters and growing demand from importers.

The key factor is the seasonal element. August is historically one of the weakest months for the ruble. Imports traditionally rise, increasing demand for foreign currency, while export revenues stagnate. This creates a structural supply deficit in the foreign exchange market, which the fiscal rule only amplifies through additional currency purchases.

Strategy for investors amid expected weakening

In my view, the current situation opens up certain windows of opportunity. Investors should consider several options for capital protection:

  • Direct purchase of currency — dollars, euros, or yuan, or futures on them;
  • Currency bonds — as exchange rates rise, they not only appreciate but also generate coupon income.

As for the launch of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, this event will have no impact on the national currency's exchange rate. The digital ruble is merely a new form of circulation, not an independent financial instrument capable of altering the market balance of supply and demand.

My conclusion: August's weakening of the ruble appears to be a highly probable scenario, but it should not be seen as a catastrophe. It is a seasonal pattern that can and should be used to diversify a portfolio. Keep a close eye on the dynamics of the trade balance — it remains the main driver of the exchange rate.