The Russian stock market is experiencing a prolonged and pronounced correction that has been ongoing for 17 weeks. During this time, the index has corrected by almost 25%. However, despite the scale of the decline, calling the current situation a "slow fade" would be incorrect — it is a full-fledged bearish trend, where the decline occurs even in the absence of a negative news backdrop. The main problem is the lack of buyers.
Bottom Not Reached: Three Months of Decline Ahead
According to several experts, the decline is likely to continue over the next three months. A bottom is unlikely, and the expected reduction in the key interest rate in the second half of the year, even if it happens, is unlikely to become a powerful catalyst for growth. The scale of monetary policy easing will probably be modest.
The dividend factor also does not act as a reversal driver. After payouts, selective purchases are possible, but their volume is insufficient to change the trend. New IPOs expected before the end of the year are likely to be more of a "lifeline" for issuers rather than a tool for growth and development. These are companies going public to solve financial problems, not to scale their business. Buying such securities is a questionable strategy.
Key Drivers of the Second Half of the Year
The market's main focus will be on three factors. The economic situation and the key interest rate are the main anchor for investor sentiment. The rate now has the strongest impact not only on the bond market but also on the stock market. Dividend-paying companies will be in focus, especially those paying dividends at or above the key rate. They may perform better than the market, but confident growth should not be expected from them. New IPOs, as experience from recent years shows, have brought virtually no income to investors, with most securities trading below their offering price. High uncertainty around the rate will reduce the number of those willing to go public.
Tokenization, Brokerage Apps, and Strategy
Interest in brokerage apps, according to several analysts, is linked not to an influx of new retail investors but to restrictions on access to foreign platforms. It is difficult to unequivocally assess demand based on this indicator. There is skepticism toward tokenization of stocks through crypto infrastructure. The main problem is the accounting of rights. Ownership through tokens creates risks for holders, especially in the context of gray capital and U.S. jurisdiction. Tax breaks in this format are of virtually no value for large capital. For small portfolios, this may be more interesting than direct exchange trading, but for large ones, it is an additional risk.
For a retail investor with a 2–3 year horizon, the optimal strategy looks like this: the portfolio's foundation is bonds, primarily OFZs (short- and medium-term), with a possible long-term portion depending on the risk profile. Stocks — only a small share, with careful and regular purchases, since it is unknown in which year the bottom will be reached: this year, next, or in 3–5 years. Gold — definitely not, it is a non-investment and uninteresting asset. Cash is acceptable as a waiting position, placed in deposits, overnight, or repo transactions.
Cryptalist Commentary: The current situation in the Russian market is a classic example of a "bear phase" under conditions of tight monetary policy and a lack of positive triggers. Investors should prepare for a prolonged period of low returns in stocks and bet on conservative instruments. Cryptocurrencies, in this context, remain a high-risk asset, and including them in a portfolio requires extreme caution, especially amid global uncertainty.