After a brief technical correction in July, which allowed the ruble to slightly recoup its June losses, the Russian currency is once again under pressure. My analysis of the current situation and macroeconomic factors indicates that by the end of summer, we will face a new, more powerful wave of ruble weakening.
June was an extremely unfavorable month for the ruble, with a decline of about 10%. The July correction of 3-5% was merely a temporary respite, not a trend reversal. The main drivers of this movement remain in force, and what we are seeing now is just the calm before the storm.
Forecast for Major Currency Pairs
According to my estimates, by the end of summer, we can expect a return to June highs and even their renewal. Specific target levels are as follows:
- US Dollar (USD/RUB): Return to levels of 80 and above.
- Euro (EUR/RUB): Consolidation around 90 rubles.
- Chinese Yuan (CNY/RUB): Movement towards 12 rubles.
Why the Ruble is Weakening: Underlying Causes
The fundamental reason for the ruble's weakening lies in the imbalance of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market. Demand for currency from importers consistently exceeds supply from exporters. This imbalance is exacerbated by a seasonal factor.
August is historically the weakest month for the ruble. During this period, a classic pattern emerges: imports rise, increasing demand for currency, while exports, on the contrary, stagnate, reducing its supply. This creates ideal conditions for a new round of devaluation.
Additionally, currency purchases under the budget rule only amplify this pressure, working against the national currency.
Strategy for Investors
Given the expected weakening of the ruble, I recommend considering several protective strategies:
- Direct Currency Purchase: Converting part of your ruble savings into dollars, euros, or yuan.
- Currency Futures: A tool for more experienced investors, allowing you to lock in the current exchange rate.
- Currency Bonds: As the currency exchange rate rises, they will not only generate coupon income but also increase in price, providing a double benefit.
As for the launch of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, in my opinion, this event will not affect the national currency's exchange rate in any way. It is merely a new form of settlement, not a market instrument.
My Expert Opinion: The market is already factoring in the ruble's weakening into its models. Investors who are not hedging currency risks should reconsider their portfolios, especially ahead of August. Ignoring this trend could lead to direct losses in ruble terms.