At the moment, bitcoin has come very close to the critically important lower boundary of the long-term Power Law model. This model, which I have been tracking for many years, demonstrates remarkable resilience: its support lines clearly define both overbought zones and accumulation zones. Currently, with the present market quotes, the lower support line is around $58,000, while the model's upper limit indicates potential near $120,000.
In my assessment, this area represents a zone of strategic interest for major players. Global Head of Macroeconomics Jurrien Timmer rightly calls it an accumulation zone. However, I would add an important nuance: without a clear catalyst in the form of a return of liquidity to the market, bitcoin could remain stuck in a sideways trend near this support line for several months. The market is waiting for a signal — either from the Fed's macroeconomic policy or from institutional flows.
My analysis: The Power Law model is not an indicator for accurately predicting the bottom, but it is ideal for identifying zones where the risk-reward ratio becomes asymmetrically attractive for long-term holders. The current situation reminds me of the periods in mid-2022, when bitcoin consolidated near this line before a subsequent reversal. However, at that time, the trigger was the tightening of monetary policy, whereas now we are witnessing the opposite process. Investors should be prepared for a prolonged accumulation phase rather than a quick rebound.