Bitcoin has closely approached the critical lower boundary of the Power Law model, which leading analysts have been using since 2015. Currently, this support line is around $58,000, while the model's upper boundary indicates potential near $120,000.
Director of Global Macroeconomics Jurrien Timmer characterizes the current zone as an accumulation area. However, he warns against premature conclusions about reaching the market bottom. According to his assessment, without a powerful catalyst in the form of a return of liquidity, the first cryptocurrency may spend several more months in sideways movement near this support.
It is important to understand that the Power Law model is not a predictive tool but a statistical pattern based on logarithmic regression. It has worked well in the past, but each new cycle brings its own adjustments. The fact that the price has approached the lower boundary indicates that the market is in an extreme undervaluation zone from the perspective of this model, but it does not guarantee an immediate reversal.
My professional analysis: the current situation resembles the consolidation of 2018–2019, when Bitcoin spent several months near the lower boundary of the Power Law before starting a powerful rally. The key trigger for exiting the sideways trend will be either an aggressive easing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy or a significant inflow of institutional capital through spot ETFs. Until these factors are present, investors should prepare for a prolonged accumulation period in the range of $55,000–$62,000.