The Trump administration has already begun behind-the-scenes consultations on how to respond to the rapid expansion of cheap and powerful artificial intelligence models from China. According to insiders familiar with the preliminary discussions, the White House is seriously concerned that current U.S. policy is not adapted to the new market realities.
The key trigger is the explosive growth in the share of Chinese open-source models. According to fresh data from the analytical service The Macro Paper, solutions such as DeepSeek and Qwen are virtually on par with their American counterparts in performance but cost significantly less. If this trend continues, developers and companies will begin migrating en masse to more budget-friendly Chinese alternatives, putting immense pressure on the margins and pricing strategies of U.S. market leaders.
The numbers speak for themselves
Statistics from Apollo Global confirm the acceleration of this process. From January 2025 to May 2026, the share of Chinese models in the top 50 most popular AI solutions worldwide steadily increased. Over the same period, the number of American models in this list shrank from approximately 33 to 28. Notably, models from France and other countries have almost completely disappeared from the ranking, giving way to a direct confrontation between the two superpowers.
This is not just a shift in rankings—it is a fundamental reshaping of the market. Cheap and efficient AI from China undermines the very economic model of American "unicorns," which are accustomed to operating with high margins. Washington now faces a dilemma: either attempt to restrict access to Chinese technologies with a new executive order, or seek other, more systemic levers of influence.
Expert opinion: The AI market is entering a phase of fierce price war. Chinese models are not just a "cheap clone" but a full-fledged competitor that breaks the established hierarchy. Investors in American AI startups should prepare for a period of margin compression and valuation corrections. In the next 12-18 months, we will see either a wave of consolidation in the U.S. or government attempts to artificially curb Chinese expansion, which in itself will create new risks for the global technology ecosystem.