The past week was marked by significant regulatory shifts and market resilience amid geopolitical risks. Bitcoin, despite a local dip, recovered, and spot ETFs finally broke a prolonged outflow streak. However, key events unfolded in the realm of state policy: from an ambitious decree by the President of Kazakhstan to bureaucratic delays surrounding the US strategic reserve.

Market: Bitcoin Showed Character

The week started nervously: Bitcoin fell below $62,000 amid an escalation of the Iran-US conflict. However, subsequent rounds of escalation and threats to close the Strait of Hormuz failed to break the "digital gold." By the weekend, the price recovered to $64,000, gaining 2.2% over the week. Ethereum showed similar dynamics (+2.6%), while most altcoins, including Dogecoin and Solana, declined by 4-4.4%.

A key signal was the resumption of inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs — $197.4 million for the week after a record eight-week outflow streak. Total AUM rose to $77.4 billion, though it is still down 32% year-to-date. Ethereum funds also attracted $84.4 million, restoring AUM to $9.6 billion. The Fear and Greed Index left the "extreme fear" zone, rising to 26 points, and the total market capitalization grew from $2.07 trillion to $2.2 trillion. Bitcoin's dominance remains stable at 58.4%, while Ethereum's share slightly increased to 9.9%.

Kazakhstan: A New Crypto Hub in the Heart of Eurasia?

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed a decree that could radically change the landscape of the crypto industry in the region. The document, prepared by the Ministry of Digital Development and the National Bank, aims to create a "transparent ecosystem of digital financial services." The most interesting aspect is the development of mechanisms for using digital assets and stablecoins for cross-border settlements. This is a direct signal to businesses: Kazakhstan wants to become a bridge for export-import operations in a regulated field.

Special attention should be paid to the tax amnesty. Authorities plan to exempt individual income from digital asset transactions from personal income tax, but only if they are conducted through regulated Kazakh infrastructure. This is a powerful incentive to bring capital out of the "gray" zone. As an analyst, I see this step not just as liberalization, but as a well-thought-out strategy to attract capital and technology to the country, bypassing strict Western sanctions regimes.

EU: MiCA Steps into DeFi and NFTs

The European Parliament approved its official position on further regulation of digital assets. The report "Digital Assets — Challenges for Competitiveness" does not introduce direct changes to MiCA, but sets a direction for expanding oversight to DeFi, crypto lending, staking, and NFTs. This came immediately after the end of the MiCA transition period on July 1, when all crypto companies in the EU switched to mandatory licensing.

The main goal is to prevent market fragmentation and create uniform rules for all bloc countries. This is a logical step: leaving DeFi and NFTs unsupervised amid growing institutional integration would be a strategic mistake. I expect that within the next 12-18 months, we will see specific legislative initiatives that will affect protocols and platforms working with European users.

US: Bitcoin Reserve Stuck in Departmental Disputes

The ambitious plan of the Trump administration to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) has hit a bureaucratic deadlock. The March 2025 decree mandated placing the reserve in the Treasury, but the department questioned its authority to manage such a volatile asset. Currently, the Department of Commerce is being considered as an alternative, while the Department of Justice is trying to find a legally flawless solution.

Recall that the US already holds the largest state stockpile of 328,372 BTC (~$21 billion). Concurrently, the BITCOIN Act and ARMA bills are being advanced in Congress, proposing the purchase of 1,000,000 BTC over five years. However, until the White House and ministries agree on a management structure, the implementation of these plans will stall. This is a classic example of political will breaking against the bureaucratic machine.

SWIFT and Other News of the Week

The SWIFT network announced the readiness of its blockchain infrastructure for the first phase of use. A pilot involving 17 banks (Citi, HSBC, BNP Paribas, etc.) focuses on round-the-clock cross-border payments with tokenized deposits. The solution will connect different ledgers, but final settlements will remain in traditional systems.

Also noteworthy:

  • AI "calculated" an anonymous text by Vitalik Buterin.
  • StarkWare CEO proposed changing the Bitcoin issuance model.
  • Strategy company sold 3,588 BTC for $226 million.
  • CertiK estimated losses from hacks at $1.32 billion over six months.
  • Exchange AscendEX and service Zapper announced closures.

My expert conclusion: The week showed that regulatory certainty is becoming the main driver for the market. Kazakhstan and the EU are moving towards creating clear rules, which is positive for long-term growth. However, the delays in the US regarding the SBR remind us that even the loudest promises take time to implement. Investors should closely monitor legal nuances — it is these, not short-term price movements, that will determine the future of the crypto industry.