Bitcoin has closely approached the lower boundary of the Power Law model, which has served as a benchmark indicator for long-term dynamics since 2015. According to current calculations, the support level is near the $58,000 mark, while the upper boundary of the model is estimated at approximately $120,000. This means the asset is in a zone where significant turning points have historically formed.
Accumulation zone or trap?
Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro, characterized the current range as an accumulation zone. However, he refrained from confirming that the market bottom has been reached, emphasizing that an external catalyst—primarily the return of liquidity to the markets—is needed for a confident recovery. Without it, the price of Bitcoin could remain stuck in a sideways movement near the support line for several months.
In my view, such consolidation is a classic scenario for large investors who accumulate positions during drawdowns. But retail traders should remember: a sideways trend near support can be psychologically exhausting and does not guarantee an immediate rebound. The key signal is not the price itself, but volumes and the macroeconomic backdrop.