The total market capitalization of public companies holding bitcoin on their balance sheets has fallen by more than $100 billion since October 2025. This decline occurs against a backdrop of paradoxical dynamics: the volume of coins held has increased, yet their dollar valuation has sharply dropped following the market correction.
According to analytical data I compiled based on open on-chain data, the value of corporate crypto treasuries has decreased from $396 billion to $272 billion. Notably, over the same period, the number of bitcoins on these companies' balance sheets increased from 953,000 to 1.14 million coins. This is a classic example of a "averaging trap": companies built up positions at historical highs, and now, at lower prices, activity has virtually stopped.
How accumulation slowed down
A key warning signal is the sharp slowdown in the pace of purchases. Since May 2025, when bitcoin showed signs of significant undervaluation according to several metrics, corporate purchases have almost completely ceased. The bulk of the coins were bought between November 2024 and October 2025, when the price fluctuated in the range of $75,000 to $125,000. During this period, the number of BTC on treasury balance sheets tripled.
This picture creates a worrying precedent: companies actively bought at the top, but now, at lower prices, they have not only stopped buying but may also begin to lock in losses.
What this means for the market
The main question I see now is the future behavior of these large holders. Given that many of them "bought the top," there is a high risk that they will start "selling the bottom." A striking example is the company Strategy, which, according to my data, has already begun to realize part of its bitcoins. This heightens concerns about the entire segment.
The combination of halted purchases by corporate treasuries and the potential start of sales removes a significant layer of habitual demand. If other companies follow Strategy's example, the pressure on the price could increase significantly. For now, they hold a record volume of coins, but new purchases have virtually stopped, making the market more vulnerable to further sell-offs.
My expert opinion: The current situation resembles a classic "euphoria — disappointment" cycle. Corporate treasuries, which were supposed to act as "smart money," have fallen into a FOMO trap. If the selling trend continues, it could become an additional catalyst for a prolonged correction. Investors should closely monitor the balances of large holders — this is one of the key indicators of institutional sentiment.