Bitcoin has come very close to the lower boundary of the Power Law model—a tool actively used to assess the long-term trends of the largest cryptocurrency. According to my calculations, the current support line is around $58,000, while the upper boundary of the model is near $120,000. This means the asset is trading near the lower limit of the historical range that has remained relevant since 2015.
Accumulation Zone or Trap?
Renowned macroeconomist and Director of Global Macro Strategy Jurrien Timmer has characterized the current area as a potential accumulation zone. However, he warns against hasty conclusions: in his words, without a meaningful catalyst—such as a return of liquidity to the market—Bitcoin could remain in a sideways trend along the support line for several more months. This does not necessarily mean reaching a bottom, but rather points to a prolonged period of consolidation.
Analytical Conclusion
From a fundamental analysis perspective, the Power Law model has historically demonstrated high accuracy in identifying long-term turning points. Nevertheless, the current situation is complicated by macroeconomic uncertainty: declining global liquidity and tightening monetary policy in key economies limit the potential for bullish momentum. I believe that a break below $55,000 would be a worrying signal, capable of questioning the stability of this model. At the same time, holding positions above $58,000 and a subsequent rebound to $70,000–$75,000 would confirm the accumulation scenario and lay the groundwork for new growth in the medium term.