The Russian cryptocurrency market is entering an era of tectonic shifts. Three clearly defined dates will become milestones separating the old "gray" order from a new, strictly regulated reality. This concerns the entry into force of EU sanctions, the launch of a specialized law on digital currency, and the introduction of criminal liability for over-the-counter transactions.
May 24, 2025: Sanctions Strike on Infrastructure
From this date, the 20th package of EU sanctions came into effect, imposing a direct ban on European entities from any operations with Russian crypto services. This is not just a political gesture, but a concrete barrier cutting off a significant pool of liquidity and forcing Russian operators into isolation. Following this, the 21st package, presented on June 9, targets third-country platforms that help circumvent restrictions, making Kyrgyzstan and other jurisdictions high-risk zones.
September 1, 2026: The "Digital Currency" Law in Action
From this date, the law regulating the circulation of digital currencies will fully come into effect. The key change is the mandatory execution of all transactions through licensed intermediaries from the Central Bank's register. Limits are being introduced for unqualified investors: the first option proposes a threshold of 300,000 rubles per year per intermediary, while amendments for the second reading discuss raising it to 600,000 rubles per month. The most fundamental point is that withdrawing cryptocurrency from a Russian digital depository will only be allowed to accounts of licensed foreign organizations, not to one's own non-custodial wallet. Deputy Novikov's amendment allowing such withdrawals has not yet been adopted, and this process should be monitored more closely than the Bitcoin exchange rate.
July 1, 2027: Criminal Liability for "Gray" Schemes
From this date, any cryptocurrency transaction outside a licensed intermediary becomes a criminally and administratively punishable act. The articles of the Criminal Code already adopted in the first reading provide for fines of up to 1 million rubles and imprisonment for up to 7 years for large-scale illegal organization of digital currency circulation. For miners, whose activities have been legalized since 2024, this means that selling mined coins through the usual route of "pool — foreign exchange — P2P" will become a criminal offense. Industrial miners will either have to register with the Federal Tax Service or register as a sole proprietor, and reports on mined coins with specified identifier addresses must be submitted by the 20th of each month.
My analysis: The market is passing the point of no return. If Novikov's amendment on withdrawals to non-custodial wallets does not pass, the user will be left with a choice between a supervised depository and a "gray zone" that will become criminally punishable from 2027. I recommend assessing your own turnover now and preparing documents on the origin of funds — the purity of an address is becoming the main asset, and a single transaction with a "contaminated" counterparty may permanently close access to global liquidity.