The market is feeling out the bottom, Kazakhstan is betting on digital assets, and the European Parliament is preparing new frameworks for DeFi and NFTs. Meanwhile, the US administration is mired in interagency disputes over a strategic bitcoin reserve. Let's break down the key events of this week.
Bitcoin: Fragile Recovery and a Glimmer of Hope
The week started nervously: bitcoin plunged below $62,000 amid the escalation of the Iran-US conflict. However, the market met subsequent geopolitical shocks with surprising calm. By the weekend, the leading cryptocurrency had recouped its losses, returning to the $64,000 area, posting a 2.2% gain for the week.
Ether showed similar dynamics (+2.6%), but most altcoins ended in the red. Dogecoin (-4%) and Solana (-4.4%) felt the drawdown most painfully.
A key positive signal — spot bitcoin ETFs broke a record eight-week streak of outflows, attracting $197.4 million. This allowed the total AUM of the products to grow to $77.4 billion, although it is still down 32% since the start of the year. Ether ETFs also saw inflows of $84.4 million, restoring AUM to $9.6 billion.
The Fear and Greed Index finally left the "extreme fear" zone, rising to 26 points. The total market capitalization edged up from $2.07 trillion to $2.2 trillion, while bitcoin's dominance remains stable at 58.4%.
Kazakhstan: A New Hub for Crypto Investments?
President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed a decree aimed at forming a "modern and transparent ecosystem of digital financial services." Key points include developing mechanisms for using digital assets and stablecoins in cross-border settlements, as well as bringing crypto asset transactions into the legal framework. This involves voluntary disclosure of assets held on foreign unregulated platforms and their transfer to local platforms.
The most interesting point for investors is the exemption from individual income tax for individuals trading through regulated Kazakh infrastructure. This is a direct signal for crypto enthusiasts and businesses: Astana intends to compete for capital.
EU: MiCA Expands, But Without Hard Power Yet
The European Parliament approved its official position on further regulation of digital assets. The report calls for expanding control to DeFi, crypto lending, staking, and NFTs. An important nuance: this is not a law yet, but a political declaration. It does not amend the existing MiCA or create new legal obligations.
The main goal is to prevent fragmentation of the single market when individual EU countries start setting their own local rules. I expect that within the next 12-18 months, we will see specific legislative initiatives affecting these sectors.
US Bitcoin Reserve: A Battle of Agencies
Trump's initiative to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) has hit a bureaucratic deadlock. The president's March decree stipulated placing the SBR in the Treasury, but officials doubt it has the legal authority to manage such a volatile asset. Now, the Commerce Department has entered the fight for the right to manage the reserve, while the Justice Department seeks a legal loophole.
The US already holds the largest state stockpile — 328,372 BTC (~$21 billion). However, plans to acquire 1,000,000 BTC over the next five years, as outlined in the BITCOIN Act and ARMA bills, remain on paper for now. While bureaucrats argue, the market is losing the opportunity for a powerful institutional driver.
SWIFT Goes Blockchain
Financial messaging giant SWIFT announced that its blockchain infrastructure is ready for the pilot phase. The project focuses on 24/7 cross-border payments using tokenized deposits. It involves 17 banks, including Citi, HSBC, and BNP Paribas.
This is a landmark event: SWIFT is not trying to replace blockchain but integrate it into the existing system. The solution will link different ledgers, synchronize obligations, and allow operations 24/7, while leaving final settlements in traditional payment systems. This is a pragmatic and likely the most realistic path for mass blockchain adoption in traditional finance.
My Expert Conclusion: The market is gradually emerging from the panic zone, but it's too early to talk about a reversal. Kazakhstan is making a very smart move by creating tax incentives. However, the delay with the SBR in the US is a worrying signal that could cost the country its leadership in the race for digital assets.